Bitcoin has regained momentum toward the $70,000 level after recent cooling inflation data and renewed accumulation by large holders — yet leading on-chain analytics firm Santiment warns that a confirmed market bottom is still not in place, leaving traders cautious about the sustainability of the rally.
Macro Tailwinds Refresh Bitcoin’s Rally
Market participants reacted positively after the latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) print came in cooler than expected, with inflation figures lower than forecasts. That shift lifted expectations for future interest rate cuts, reinvigorating risk assets including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin responded by testing resistance near the mid-$60,000s and briefly approaching $70,000, a key psychological level for bulls.
However, Santiment analysts highlighted that while macro catalysts like inflation relief can spark sharp price reactions, such moves don’t necessarily signify longer-term trend reversals without broader confirmations across other indicators.
Whales Add Bitcoin but Retail Hesitation Persists
On-chain data shows that large Bitcoin holders — so-called whale wallets — have resumed accumulation, with Santiment noting significant inflows into whale-tier addresses after weeks of relative inactivity. This renewed interest from smart money contrasts with weak participation from smaller retail traders, who remain on the sidelines amid lingering bearish sentiment.
Santiment interprets this behavior as mixed signals for the market’s health. While whale accumulation suggests confidence among sophisticated holders, the absence of broad retail conviction — typically seen at major market bottoms — signals caution.
Other on-chain analytics confirm that the share of Bitcoin held by large holders recently dipped to the lowest in several months, underscoring a shifting supply distribution and persistent uncertainty.
Why the Bottom Isn’t Confirmed Yet
Despite Bitcoin’s rebound, several indicators remain inconclusive:
- Trading volume has collapsed compared with recent weeks, indicating that short-term traders are not firmly driving the move.
- Sentiment still skews bearish across social and market metrics, a sign that broader confidence has yet to return.
- On-chain metrics such as MVRV and funding rates suggest structural caution among futures and derivatives traders.
Santiment noted that historical bear markets often feature strong whale activity early — as sophisticated holders accumulate discounts — while retail traders lag behind in confidence and participation. This pattern, while sometimes preceding recoveries, doesn’t guarantee one unless multiple confirmation signals align.
Market Outlook and Key Levels
Analysts point to a fragile equilibrium between $60,000 and $70,000, where Bitcoin has spent recent sessions consolidating. Breaks above the upper end of this range could fuel short-squeeze dynamics and attract fresh buying, while failure to hold support near $60,000 might reopen bearish downside risk.
For now, Santiment’s outlook suggests that whale accumulation and macro catalysts are positive but not definitive on their own. Traders are watching for clearer trend confirmation — such as sustained volume expansion, broader sentiment improvement, and technical breakouts — before declaring a major bottom.
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