Bitcoin could receive more support than gold if investors begin reducing defensive positions around cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds, according to a recent analysis from JPMorgan strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.
The comparison centers on investor positioning rather than a direct price forecast. JPMorgan highlighted elevated short interest and options hedging around BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), while positioning in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) appears less defensive.
The difference could become important if investors reduce their hedges. In that scenario, the unwinding of bearish positions around Bitcoin ETFs could provide an additional source of buying pressure that is currently less pronounced in gold.
JPMorgan Sees a Bigger Hedging Gap Between Bitcoin and Gold
According to JPMorgan’s analysis, both Bitcoin and gold ETFs attracted renewed inflows after the Federal Reserve’s late-July meeting as investors returned to what analysts describe as the “debasement trade.”
However, the recovery in ETF demand has not been equal.
Gold ETFs have recovered all of the cumulative outflows recorded earlier in 2026, while spot Bitcoin ETFs have recovered approximately half of their previous outflows. JPMorgan said this leaves Bitcoin ETF demand with more room to recover if market conditions and investor sentiment improve.
The bank also noted that the broader trade has weakened recently as inflation-adjusted bond yields increased and the U.S. Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act in a September procedural vote. These developments have added pressure to the market backdrop for risk assets and crypto.
IBIT Short Interest Near Its Highest Level of 2026
One of the key indicators in JPMorgan’s analysis is short interest.
The bank said short interest in BlackRock’s IBIT remains close to its highest level of 2026. By comparison, short interest in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, or GLD, is below its historical average.
Independent short-interest data provides additional context. IBIT had approximately 45.93 million shares sold short as of August 31, 2026, up 23.8% from approximately 37.10 million shares in the previous reporting period. The August figure is also the highest level shown in the available 2026 short-interest history.
That does not necessarily mean all IBIT short positions represent an outright bearish Bitcoin bet. ETF short positions can be used for hedging, arbitrage, relative-value strategies and other forms of portfolio risk management.
This distinction is important because JPMorgan’s argument focuses on the potential impact of hedging demand rather than assuming that every short position represents a directional bet against Bitcoin.
IBIT Options Also Show More Defensive Positioning
JPMorgan pointed to options markets for another indication of the difference between Bitcoin and gold positioning.
The put-to-call open-interest ratio for IBIT is higher than the corresponding ratio for GLD, according to the bank’s analysis. A higher ratio can indicate greater demand for downside protection relative to call exposure, although the metric can also reflect multiple trading strategies and should not be interpreted as a standalone prediction of price direction.
Taken together with the elevated short interest, JPMorgan sees Bitcoin as carrying a more defensive positioning backdrop than gold.
That creates a potential market dynamic: if investors become less concerned about Bitcoin’s downside risk, some of those defensive positions could be reduced. The resulting hedge unwind could provide additional demand for Bitcoin ETFs and potentially support the asset relative to gold.
Bitcoin ETF Demand Has Been Volatile in September
Recent ETF flows illustrate how quickly institutional positioning has been changing.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $450.4 million in net outflows on September 15, followed by another $295.9 million in outflows on September 16, according to reported Farside data. The two sessions together represented roughly $746 million in withdrawals.
The trend reversed on September 17. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $159.45 million in net inflows, with IBIT attracting around $183.66 million while Fidelity’s FBTC and VanEck’s HODL recorded outflows.
The sharp changes underline why JPMorgan is focusing on positioning and hedging rather than treating individual ETF-flow sessions as a definitive trend.
Why Hedge Unwinding Could Matter for Bitcoin
The mechanics behind JPMorgan’s argument are relatively straightforward.
When investors hold defensive positions through short sales or put options, those positions can limit or offset the impact of a decline in the underlying asset. If market participants subsequently decide that less protection is necessary, they may close some short positions or reduce downside hedges.
For Bitcoin, JPMorgan believes the amount of defensive positioning currently embedded in IBIT creates more potential for such an adjustment than in GLD.
However, hedge unwinding is not automatically bullish in every market environment. Investors can establish or close positions for a wide range of reasons, and changes in short interest or options positioning do not by themselves determine the future price of Bitcoin.
JPMorgan also acknowledged that other factors could influence the relative performance of Bitcoin and gold.
Gold Still Has Strong ETF Demand
JPMorgan’s comparison should not be interpreted as a claim that gold’s underlying investment case has disappeared.
Gold ETFs have recovered their earlier 2026 outflows, demonstrating continued demand for the traditional safe-haven and monetary-hedge asset. Bitcoin’s ETF recovery, by contrast, remains incomplete according to JPMorgan’s latest assessment.
The difference means the two markets are entering the current period with different positioning characteristics.
Gold has already experienced a stronger recovery in ETF flows, while Bitcoin retains a larger amount of defensive positioning. If investor sentiment improves, that positioning gap could become an important factor in determining how flows respond.
What JPMorgan’s Analysis Means for Bitcoin Investors
JPMorgan’s latest Bitcoin-versus-gold analysis is primarily a positioning argument, not a standalone Bitcoin price target.
The bank is highlighting three major differences:
- IBIT short interest: Near its highest level of 2026, according to JPMorgan.
- GLD short interest: Below its historical average, according to JPMorgan.
- Options positioning: IBIT has a higher put-to-call open-interest ratio than GLD, indicating comparatively greater demand for downside protection.
If those defensive positions decline, JPMorgan believes Bitcoin could receive relatively more support than gold from the resulting adjustment.
At the same time, Bitcoin remains sensitive to interest rates, real Treasury yields, ETF flows, regulatory developments, liquidity conditions and broader risk appetite. Consequently, a reduction in hedging would be one potential source of support rather than a guarantee of higher prices.
Bottom Line
JPMorgan’s latest analysis identifies a notable positioning gap between Bitcoin and gold ETFs. IBIT is carrying substantially more defensive positioning, with short interest near its 2026 high and a higher put-to-call open-interest ratio than GLD.
The bank’s argument is that if investors reduce their Bitcoin ETF hedges, the resulting unwinding of short positions and downside protection could provide more incremental support to Bitcoin than gold.
Recent ETF flows remain volatile, however, with large outflows earlier in the week followed by a return to net inflows on September 17. That makes ETF positioning an important metric to monitor alongside macroeconomic conditions and broader institutional demand.
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