Cryptocurrency asset manager VanEck says recent signs of miner capitulation in the Bitcoin network, including a 4 % drop in hashrate through Dec. 15, 2025, may indicate that a market bottom is near. Analysts at VanEck describe the situation as a historically bullish contrarian signal, potentially pointing to positive price performance in the months ahead despite recent volatility.
What VanEck Observed
In a recent market research note, VanEck’s digital assets team — led by Matt Sigel and Patrick Bush — highlighted a 4 % decline in Bitcoin’s mining hashrate over the month ending Dec. 15. This drop marks one of the more notable hashrate contractions since April 2024.
Miners generate revenue by dedicating computational power to secure the Bitcoin network, but when price pressures compress profit margins, less efficient operations may shut down or scale back — a phenomenon known as miner capitulation. VanEck noted that such periods of declining hashrate have historically preceded positive price returns.
Historical Patterns Suggest Optimism
According to VanEck’s research:
- When hashrate declined over a 30-day period, Bitcoin’s 90-day forward returns were positive about 65 % of the time, compared with 54 % when hashrate rose.
- Over a 180-day horizon, negative hashrate growth was followed by positive returns in approximately 77 % of cases, with an average gain around 72 %.
Analysts view these historical tendencies as contrarian signals — market indicators that reflect extreme stress among miners and a possible transition toward recovery phases after prolonged sell-offs.
Why Hashrate Declines Matter
Hashrate measures the total computing power securing the Bitcoin network. When prices fall or mining profitability declines, weaker miners may turn off equipment, reducing hashrate and temporarily easing network difficulty. While a falling hashrate can be bearish in the short term, prolonged declines followed by stability have often coincided with positive price movements later on.
Data from broader on-chain analysis shows hashrate is sensitive to both Bitcoin price and miner economics, including factors like electricity costs and reward structure — especially following the 2024 halving that reduced block rewards.
Current Market Context
Bitcoin’s price has been under pressure in recent weeks, drifting lower from earlier 2025 highs. Some analysts attribute part of this weakness to tightened miner profitability and elevated selling pressure from short-term holders. However, the miner capitulation signal may reflect a rebalancing phase in which only the most efficient mining operations remain online.
Other on-chain indicators — such as the Hash Ribbons — have historically flagged periods where capitulation ends and recovery begins, though timing and strength of rebounds vary across market cycles.
Industry Interpretation and Caution
Market observers caution that while miner capitulation has sometimes aligned with market lows — paving the way for recovery — it is not a guaranteed predictor of immediate price increases. The duration and depth of miner stress, macroeconomic conditions, and broader investor sentiment all influence price trajectories.
Nevertheless, VanEck’s analysis adds to a growing narrative among crypto analysts that periods of extreme miner pressure can set the stage for bullish shifts once selling pressure subsides and network fundamentals stabilize.
Bottom Line
The recent decline in Bitcoin’s hashrate — interpreted as miner capitulation — offers a potentially bullish contrarian signal according to VanEck’s research. While caution remains warranted, historical patterns suggest that such conditions have often preceded positive price performance in future months, making this a key metric for market participants to watch.
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