Bitcoin’s latest rally may still be in its early stages, according to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, which says market activity remains relatively subdued despite the cryptocurrency recovering from its earlier 2026 weakness.
In its latest The Week On-chain report published September 30, Glassnode said total Bitcoin volume across spot exchanges and U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is averaging approximately $6.4 billion per day.
That level is close to the bottom of Bitcoin’s volume range since U.S. spot ETFs launched, leading Glassnode to characterize the current rally as early and speculative.
The analysis suggests that while Bitcoin has regained important market support levels, broader participation has yet to fully return.
Bitcoin Volume Remains Near the Bottom of Its Post-ETF Range
Glassnode’s latest data shows that Bitcoin’s price recovery has not been accompanied by a comparable expansion in trading activity.
Combined volume from spot exchanges and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs is averaging around $6.4 billion per day, according to the analytics firm.
Glassnode noted that this remains near the lower end of the range observed since the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.
For Glassnode, the relatively low volume is significant because sustained price advances are generally supported by broader market participation. The current rally has therefore not yet demonstrated the level of activity that would indicate widespread demand.
The firm said that a sustained increase in volume while Bitcoin remains above important support levels would provide evidence that the uptrend is gaining broader participation.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Have Started to Cool
The latest Glassnode report also highlighted a recent slowdown in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF buying.
ETF net inflows reached approximately $1 billion on September 21 and another $1 billion on September 22. Glassnode described the first of those sessions as the largest ETF inflow day in almost a year.
However, inflows subsequently declined on each trading day covered by the report.
By September 28, the latest day of ETF-flow data in the report, net inflows had fallen to approximately $24 million.
Glassnode said that while ETFs were still buying Bitcoin, the pace had fallen substantially from the two unusually strong sessions earlier in the month.
Low Profit-Taking Suggests Limited Selling Pressure
Despite the subdued trading volume, Glassnode found that Bitcoin profit-taking remains relatively light compared with previous market peaks.
The firm’s weekly Net Realized Profit/Loss measure remains significantly below the levels observed around the major 2024 and 2025 market tops.
Glassnode said the current pace of realized profit is closer to the beginning of the previous uptrend in late 2023 than to the elevated profit-taking seen at later cycle highs.
However, the composition of sellers has recently changed.
Long-term holders—defined by Glassnode as investors holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days—nearly doubled their realized profits during the week ending September 29 compared with the week of the latest breakout.
Their share of total realized profit also increased from approximately 34% to 55%.
Glassnode said a further increase in weekly profit-taking toward historical peak levels would indicate that holders are increasingly selling into strength.
$85,000-$85,500 Becomes a Key Bitcoin Resistance Zone
Glassnode identified a significant concentration of sell orders between approximately $85,000 and $85,500.
According to the report, the sell-order wall appeared on September 24 and has since tripled in size.
Bitcoin has moved into the lower portion of this resistance area but has not been able to decisively break through it.
Glassnode said that as long as the orders remain in place, the $85,000-$85,500 area represents an important near-term resistance zone.
A sustained move above approximately $85,500 would remove what Glassnode described as the largest resistance currently visible on the order book.
Bitcoin Remains Above Important Cost-Basis Levels
Despite the resistance overhead, Glassnode’s on-chain metrics show that Bitcoin remains above several important investor cost bases.
The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis currently stands around $73,300. Bitcoin is trading roughly 13% above this level, meaning recent buyers remain in aggregate profit according to the metric.
Glassnode also identified its True Market Mean at approximately $77,200.
Bitcoin has remained above that metric since September 18.
The True Market Mean represents Glassnode’s estimate of the average price paid by active market participants. The analytics firm considers it an important support level during the current recovery.
A daily close below approximately $77,200 would end the current stretch above the True Market Mean, according to Glassnode.
Bitcoin Rally Has Not Yet Attracted Broad Participation
The combination of rising prices and relatively low volume is central to Glassnode’s assessment.
Bitcoin has recovered while trading activity remains close to the lower end of its post-ETF-launch range.
This means the market has not yet seen the broad expansion in participation that could provide stronger confirmation of the recovery.
Glassnode’s analysis does not say that Bitcoin’s rally is necessarily unsustainable. Instead, it indicates that the current move remains relatively early and speculative because trading volume has yet to expand substantially.
A sustained increase in volume alongside continued price strength would provide a stronger indication that the recovery is broadening.
Bitcoin Has Recently Outperformed the S&P 500 on More Sessions
Glassnode also compared Bitcoin’s recent performance with the S&P 500.
Over the previous 30 trading sessions covered in the report, Bitcoin had outperformed the S&P 500 on more than half of the sessions.
The firm’s analysis showed that Bitcoin had also reacted less severely to down days in the S&P 500 during much of that period.
However, that relative strength weakened during the week covered by the report.
Between September 22 and September 29, Bitcoin declined approximately 2.9%, compared with a 1.2% decline for the S&P 500.
Glassnode cautioned that only a few additional losing sessions could eliminate Bitcoin’s recent edge in the share of winning sessions.
Altcoins Have Also Participated Without Heavy Leverage
The recent recovery has extended beyond Bitcoin.
Glassnode said altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the previous month, with many of the top 500 crypto assets recording stronger 30-day performance.
At the same time, the firm found relatively limited evidence of excessive leverage.
Only about 19% of altcoins were paying funding rates above the neutral level of 0.01%, according to Glassnode.
That figure remains substantially below the levels observed around previous altcoin market peaks.
The data suggests that the recent altcoin advance has not yet been accompanied by the kind of widespread leveraged positioning that can increase the risk of forced liquidations.
What Could Confirm a Broader Bitcoin Recovery?
Glassnode highlighted several developments that could provide stronger evidence of a more established Bitcoin uptrend.
A sustained increase in Bitcoin trading volume would be one of the most important signals.
Renewed strong inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs would also demonstrate that institutional demand is returning after the recent slowdown.
On the price side, overcoming the $85,000-$85,500 resistance zone would remove a significant concentration of sell orders.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin continuing to hold above the approximately $77,200 True Market Mean would preserve one of the key on-chain support levels identified by Glassnode.
Bottom Line
Glassnode says Bitcoin’s current rally remains early and speculative, with combined spot-exchange and U.S. spot ETF volume averaging approximately $6.4 billion per day.
The figure remains near the bottom of Bitcoin’s volume range since the launch of U.S. spot ETFs, suggesting that the recovery has not yet attracted broad trading participation.
ETF demand also weakened after two major inflow sessions of roughly $1 billion each on September 21 and 22.
At the same time, profit-taking remains relatively low compared with previous market peaks, Bitcoin is holding above important cost-basis levels, and leverage across the broader crypto market remains relatively restrained.
For the recovery to demonstrate broader market participation, Glassnode’s data points toward the importance of rising trading volume, renewed ETF inflows and Bitcoin’s ability to overcome the $85,000-$85,500 resistance zone while maintaining support around the $77,200 True Market Mean.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, trading or other professional advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and past market behavior does not guarantee future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consider their individual circumstances before making financial decisions.
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