Investment Bank Warns Congressional Calendar Is Working Against Landmark Crypto Bill
Investment bank TD Cowen has cautioned that the CLARITY Act, one of the most closely watched cryptocurrency market structure bills in the United States, still faces significant political and procedural hurdles despite recent legislative progress.
In a new research note, TD Cowen Managing Director Jaret Seiberg said the legislation’s passage before the November 2026 midterm elections is “far from assured,” citing an increasingly compressed congressional calendar and limited floor time in the Senate. The firm lowered its estimated probability of the bill becoming law in 2026 to 50%, down from 60% earlier this month.
July 24 Viewed as a Critical Deadline
According to TD Cowen, July 24 represents a key legislative milestone because it marks the final window for meaningful Senate action before lawmakers leave Washington for the August recess.
If the CLARITY Act fails to advance before Congress breaks, its prospects could diminish sharply as attention shifts toward campaigning for the November midterm elections. Historically, Congress passes relatively little major legislation during the fall of an election year, making the pre-recess period especially important.
Seiberg noted that while the bill has cleared important committee stages, several procedural steps—including Senate floor debate, amendments, reconciliation between committee versions, and final House approval of any changes—must still be completed within a narrowing timeframe.
Political Challenges Continue to Build
Beyond scheduling constraints, TD Cowen believes the political environment has become more challenging for bipartisan crypto legislation.
The research firm has previously argued that several Democratic lawmakers remain hesitant to support the bill without additional conflict-of-interest provisions and stronger consumer protection measures. At the same time, opposition from parts of the banking industry over certain stablecoin-related provisions continues to complicate negotiations.
Although supporters argue the legislation would provide long-awaited regulatory clarity for the digital asset industry, lawmakers must still bridge disagreements between multiple committees and political factions before a final vote can occur.
Why the CLARITY Act Matters
The CLARITY Act seeks to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States by clearly defining the respective responsibilities of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Supporters say the legislation would reduce regulatory uncertainty, encourage blockchain innovation, and provide clearer compliance standards for cryptocurrency exchanges, token issuers, and decentralized finance (DeFi) projects.
Many industry participants view the bill as one of the most significant pieces of crypto legislation currently under consideration in Washington.
Market Watching Senate Calendar Closely
The latest warning from TD Cowen echoes similar concerns raised by other market analysts, including Galaxy Research, which recently reduced its own estimate for the bill’s chances of becoming law this year because of tightening Senate schedules.
For now, investors and crypto companies will be closely monitoring congressional activity over the coming weeks. Whether Senate leaders can allocate sufficient floor time before the August recess may ultimately determine whether the CLARITY Act advances this year or is pushed into the next legislative session.
Key Takeaways
- TD Cowen says passage of the CLARITY Act before the November midterm elections is “far from assured.”
- The firm reduced its estimated odds of passage in 2026 to 50%.
- July 24 is viewed as a critical deadline before Congress leaves for the August recess.
- Political disagreements, Senate scheduling constraints, and banking industry concerns continue to threaten the bill’s timeline.
- The CLARITY Act would establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets and clarify oversight between the SEC and CFTC.
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