Moody’s Ratings has cautioned that millions of dormant Bitcoin wallets with exposed public keys may become increasingly vulnerable as quantum computing technology advances, particularly following the Trump administration’s latest executive orders aimed at accelerating U.S. quantum capabilities.
The warning highlights a long-term cybersecurity concern known as “harvest now, decrypt later” (HNDL)—a strategy in which attackers collect encrypted or cryptographically protected data today, intending to break it once sufficiently powerful quantum computers become available. While practical quantum computers capable of compromising Bitcoin do not yet exist, security experts argue that preparations must begin years before such systems become operational.
Why Dormant Bitcoin Wallets Are at Risk
Bitcoin relies on elliptic curve cryptography (ECDSA) to secure transactions. In most cases, a wallet’s public key remains hidden until coins are spent. However, once a public key has been revealed on-chain through a transaction, it becomes permanently visible.
According to Moody’s assessment, wallets that have remained inactive after revealing their public keys—including early Bitcoin addresses and long-dormant holdings—could become attractive targets for future quantum-enabled attacks. If quantum computers eventually become capable of breaking ECDSA using algorithms such as Shor’s algorithm, attackers could theoretically derive private keys from exposed public keys and move funds without authorization.
The warning primarily affects inactive addresses that cannot easily migrate to newer, quantum-resistant wallet designs.
Understanding “Harvest Now, Decrypt Later”
The HNDL strategy does not require quantum computers to exist today.
Instead, malicious actors collect encrypted information or cryptographic material now, store it for years, and wait until future quantum computers can decrypt or break the underlying cryptography.
For Bitcoin, this means exposed public keys may be cataloged today with the expectation that future quantum advances could make them exploitable. Cybersecurity agencies increasingly view this as a present-day planning issue rather than a distant theoretical concern.
Trump Administration Accelerates Quantum Development
The warning comes shortly after President Donald Trump signed executive orders designed to accelerate both U.S. quantum computing development and national defenses against quantum-enabled cyber threats.
One executive order directs federal agencies to strengthen post-quantum cryptographic protections while another seeks to expand America’s quantum computing capabilities through research, infrastructure, and defense initiatives.
The White House acknowledged that adversaries could already be collecting encrypted information today with plans to decrypt it once quantum technology matures, reinforcing concerns surrounding HNDL attacks.
Quantum Risk Remains Long-Term—but Preparation Is Immediate
Despite growing attention, researchers emphasize that today’s quantum computers remain far from breaking Bitcoin’s cryptography.
Recent academic studies suggest the arrival of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer remains uncertain, with meaningful probabilities increasing over the next two decades rather than immediately. However, experts argue that migrating vulnerable systems to post-quantum cryptography requires many years of preparation, making early planning essential.
Financial institutions, governments, and technology companies have already begun implementing post-quantum migration strategies following the release of standardized post-quantum cryptographic algorithms by the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST).
Bitcoin Community Exploring Quantum-Resistant Solutions
The Bitcoin ecosystem has increasingly discussed proposals to address future quantum risks.
Potential solutions include migrating coins to quantum-resistant signature schemes, encouraging users to move funds from exposed addresses, and implementing protocol upgrades that introduce post-quantum cryptography while maintaining network security.
Industry researchers note that most Bitcoin remains protected because public keys are not exposed until coins are spent. Nevertheless, older wallets, inactive addresses, and lost coins with previously revealed public keys represent a concentrated area of future risk.
Market Impact
Moody’s warning does not indicate an immediate threat to Bitcoin holders but instead highlights a strategic cybersecurity issue that could shape the cryptocurrency’s long-term evolution.
As governments invest heavily in quantum computing while simultaneously preparing quantum-resistant cybersecurity standards, digital asset developers are expected to accelerate research into post-quantum security measures. The discussion reflects a broader industry recognition that preparing for quantum-era cryptography must begin well before quantum computers become capable of threatening existing blockchain security.
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